← Derpy Cards Distorted Reflection Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Derpy Cards Distorted Reflection Store Championship
decks
3
(33.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1376
· median 1400
· range 1153–1576
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1115
Q1 1162
Q3 1549
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Overlord | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
